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Give me a call today if you are interested in this pre-approved short sale...it is not on the market yet, but will be soon.

It is in great shape and is an excellent value. So if you want the first opportunity to view this home,

call me right away: 561-602-1258

NAR's Yun has just entered...The Twilight Zone

Today, the stock market surged on DECLINING home sales...the 'market' expected the Natl Assn of Realtors report to come in at 4.8M, instead it came in at 4.81M and everyone is ecstatic!

 

Last months sales were originally reported at 5.05M...but revised downward to 5.0M- (a common tactic...and watch, the 4.81 will get 'revised down' at some point).

 

And the NAR chief economist, Lawerence Yun, had the following (laughable) reasoning for the decline:...temporary factors held back the market in May... “Spiking gasoline prices along with widespread severe weather hurt house shopping in April, leading to soft figures for actual closings in May,” he said. “Current housing market activity indicates a very slow pace of broader economic activity, but recent reversals in oil prices are likely to mitigate the impact going forward. The pace of sales activity in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than the first half, and will be much stronger than the second half of last year.”

 

I have to tell you...most of the time I am embarrassed to be a paying member of NAR. Spiking gasoline prices? Isn't that pathetic? You mean to tell me that Mr. and Mrs. potential homebuyer, just about to sign on the dotted line, decided that they couldn't afford a house because gas rose by forty cents? Let's figure this out; suppose that the average mileage is 18 MPG, the average miles driven per year is 15,000...that would be 834 gallons a year...at 40 cents a gallon hike that is an extra $374 per year, or an $31 per month, or an extra $7.75 per week! If $31 a month is turning buyers into non-buyers...they should not have been thinking about buying in the first place!

 

When are we going to get some truth out of the NAR PR machine? No wonder agents are regarded on par with the stereotypical used-car salesman...it is well deserved!

Happy Fathers Day

To a child…LOVE is spelled TIME.

Click on the photo above…it will take you to see a touching and insightful 2 minute video about what is most important to your kids.

Blessings to all of the Fathers out there.

Bankruptcy Basics Video Series

Questions about bankruptcy come up at a majority of my appointments with sellers who are upside down on their homes and trying to explore their options. I always defer  to the experts on the subject: bankruptcy attorneys. But, I recently came across this series of helpful videos that will give homeowners a basic understanding of the various bankruptcy options. Just click on the video, below. You can then watch the entire series of nine short videos.

Home price plunge coming - Shiller - Jun. 9, 2011

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In an off-hand remark before cameras and microphones, economist and housing market guru Robert Shiller opined earlier this year that he would not be shocked if there was another 10% to 25% in the nation's home price plunge -- and he's not backing down from that statement.

At a S&P Housing Summit in New York, Shiller on Thursday reiterated his fears of falling home prices. It's not a forecast, he said, just a comment on his understanding of housing market trends.

He explained that speculative markets, like stocks or commodities, act like random walks. They go up and down all the time. Housing market direction tends to be more consistent.

"I worry that this is a real and continuing downturn, like in Japan," Shiller said. "It had a boom in the 1980s that peaked in 1991. Prices declined in the major cities for 15 straight years after that."

The U.S. housing market is hard to predict because the boom and bust it went through was unique. Shiller has studied historical price data back to the 1890s and found nothing like it.

"This is the biggest housing boom and bust in U.S. history," he said. "The bubble was unique. "That makes it impossible for statisticians to forecast because they deal with things that repeat themselves. You see a pattern and expect it to repeat."

It's even different from the Great Depression, when the home price plunge was at about the same rate. The big difference, however, was that prices of nearly everything else cratered in the 1930s as well -- which has not been true during the housing bust.

Home price plunge coming - Shiller - Jun. 9, 2011

It's Official...

The house price collapse is now worse than it was during the Great Depression.

That astonishing piece of information comes from the researchers at the think tank ‘Capital Economics’. It follows Tuesday's news from Case-Shiller that house prices fell again in March, as the double dip gets worse. Writes Capital Economics' senior economist Paul Dales, "On the Case-Shiller measure, prices are now 33% below the 2006 peak and are back at a level last seen in the third quarter of 2002. This means that prices have now fallen by more than the 31% decline endured during the Great Depression."

(This is on a National basis...here in South Florida our price declines are even steeper....over 50% from the top reached in late 2005. We are now back to prices not seen since 1999-2000. (italics mine)).

Capital Economics says the latest double-dip in housing should come as no surprise. It's very much following a pattern seen in the early 30s, when a brief recovery also petered out. (the brief recovery was a govt. induced false recovery via the homebuyer tax credit). The same has also happened in other big housing busts around the world, the think-tank says. It believes prices are going to fall even further before we hit rock bottom, maybe sometime next year.

(Last year, the 'experts were saying 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2011 would be the bottom...next year, they'll move their 'predictions' again. These 'experts' should ask someone actually IN the real estate business their opinion. I have been calling a 'saw tooth bottom' possibly by 2015; and that's only if all other housing factors (interest rates, loan qualification standards, mortgage interest deduction, etc. stay the same! Is there a silver lining? There is if you have a long enough time-line. If you can get the financing, housing is now cheap. At many price points, renting is more expensive than owning).

Capital Economics calculated that housing is now the cheapest it's been in thirty-five years.

(With mortgages rates still at all time lows, and inflation creeping in, housing here can be a good deal. But you'll have to be patient to see the biggest rewards. Capital Economics says, back in the Depression, it took 19 years for house prices to recover to their previous peaks....and it will likely take longer this time around. Now, I'm no Harvard trained economist, but my understanding is that during inflationary periods, having fixed rate debt is a benefit...you're paying back your debt with cheaper dollars. And this is the theory behind what Fed is going to do to pay off OUR debt! So, what does this mean for you? If you're a seller considering selling soon or within the next few years...sell now...be the NEXT home to sell. If you're a buyer...make sure that you have a very good reason for buying (and there are still many good reasons) and a long enough time horizon to ride out the value fluctuations ahead).

If you'd like to further discuss the implications of the current market economics for your specific situation, just call me on my direct line, 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson