Interesting Perspective

A guy whose videos I get a few times a week recently did a short video with an interesting perspective on the current market conditions.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

561.602.1258

Making Moving Easier for Children

From a great parenting blog, Little Hearts/Gentle Parenting, that I read whenever I can, comes this post on kids and moving

Transitions are hard on everyone, and when the whole family is affected such as in a big move to a new home, parents often get so caught up in the logistics of the move and their own stresses that helping their children cope with the move can get lost in the chaos. Here are a few things you can do to ease the transition for your little people without adding more stress to yourself:

1. With small children, it can be tempting to build up the move beforehand to make it seem like an exciting adventure, but over excitement can be just as stressful and overwhelming to small children (and big ones!) as anxiety can be. Instead, try to keep things as low-key as possible. Wait until it’s close to time to actually start packing before discussing the move with your little one, and then use simple, age-appropriate language to tell them that you are all moving together (emphasize together so there’s no misunderstanding!) to a new house.
2. Show them pictures of the new house, the new yard, their new room, the kitchen, bathroom, living room, etc. Ask them where they’d like to put their bed and draw it on the picture with a marker. Do the same with their toy box, toothbrush, high chair, sandbox, and anything they ask about to reassure them that their things are coming along on the move and to begin to familiarize them with their new space. Give them a marker and another set of pictures of the new house to draw on so they can begin to make it their own.
3. Put boxes in their room a few days before the move and let them begin to pack their own things in their own time. You can go back and repack the boxes when they’re asleep or playing elsewhere if needed. Giving them some control over the move will help tremendously with their feelings of being taken away from their familiar home.
4. Keep a few familiar toys out for the actual move to help your little one see that their things are coming with them. If possible, let them help with loading the boxes from their room onto the truck, too. Knowing that their toys and clothes and bed are coming with them on the move is very comforting.
5. Pack a travel bag with new toys and activities and healthy, familiar snacks for moving day. The novelty of the new toys will help them to travel more happily, and the familiar snacks will keep their tummies settled and hunger at bay making for a calmer trip for all.
6. At the new house, unpack your little one’s things first if at all possible so that they can see for themselves that they made the trip and can begin settling in right away. Take the time to play with them, too. It’s amazing how a few minutes of playing together can settle a small child when they’re stressed!
7. Don’t be surprised if your little one is clingy and whiney for a few days after the move. After unpacking their things, don’t try to rush to unpack everything else all at once. Give your child all of the time and attention they need to help ease the transition for them.
8. Nighttime can be the hardest for children in a new home, so be prepared for lots of cuddling and possibly a night visitor in your bed for a while. Being there for your little one at night is as important as being there for them in the day!
9. Involve them in unpacking and putting away everything from kitchen utensils to books to linens to clothes. Children are very tactile, and actually touching all of the places and putting familiar things from their old home away in the new home can help them to begin to feel at home themselves.
10. Stick to familiar routines such as bedtime, naptime, etc. But don’t be rigid about schedules. Your little one has been through a huge change and needs extra attention and understanding from their source of comfort and security…you!
11. Introduce new things like playgroups, pediatricians, babysitters, churches, etc. slowly, spread out over as long a period of time as possible. The move itself is overwhelming enough in its newness without adding in a ton of other unfamiliar things right away.
12. Find some things near your new home that are familiar to your little one from your previous home such as a chain grocery store, toy store, restaurant, etc. Seeing and visiting familiar places is vastly reassuring for small children because they can see for themselves that you can still buy them food and other necessities even though you’ve moved.

Giving your child the reassurance that some things will remain the same even when so many things have changed helps to stabilize and assure them that their needs will still be met and life will still go on in many of the same patterns and routines they are used to. Remaining calm and available for your little one, even in the midst of your own stresses over the move, is key. But take care of yourself, too. Change is hard on everyone, so cut yourself some slack and don’t try to do everything at once. Remember, slow and steady wins the race!

 

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson…561.602.1258

Is Now The Time To Sell Your Home?

A seller’s ability to sell their home in ANY real estate market will be determined by the supply of homes for sale and the demand for that housing. In real estate, supply is represented by the current month’s supply of homes for sale (the number of homes for sale divided by the number of homes sold in the previous month).

• As of today there are 11,199 properties listed on the MLS in Palm Beach County.
• Sales reported last month in Palm Beach County were 2771
• That translates into an absorption rate based upon the above figures of a little over 4 months…

While there is no steadfast rule that will apply to pricing in every category of housing, here is a great guideline:

• Under 5 months’ supply creates a sellers’ market where there are not enough homes to satisfy buyer demand. Prices usually rise in this scenario.
• 5-7 months’ supply creates a balanced market. Historically home values appreciate at about the rate of inflation.
• Over 7 months’ supply creates a buyers’ market where the number of homes for sale exceeds the demand. Depreciation follows.

So…what is happening right now?

In most parts of the country, supply is dropping like a rock. According to the National Association of Realtors, total housing inventory is below a five months’ supply. This is well below inventory numbers of just a year ago and at levels we haven’t seen since 2005.

Here in Palm Beach County, supply is also at one of the lowest points that I have ever seen! 

Based on the guidelines above, we can see that the supply/demand ratio is showing a sellers’ market where prices normally  appreciate. This has created positive movement in housing values here as well as in most parts of the country.

Sellers have a great opportunity right now….and there is no guarantee that this confluence of events is likely to last. Historically, inventory increases dramatically as we approach summer. Selling now, while demand is high and supply is low, should garner you your best price.

If you’re in the process of interviewing agents to enable you to select the one to best represent you…make sure your agent knows the macro trend..but they also need to understand and know the figures as they apply, not only to your particular community…but the absorption rate/supply of competitive homes ‘in your price range’. You need to overlay all three of these to get an accurate depiction of the market for YOUR home.

Thanks for reading.

Steve Jackson…561.602.1258

Lantana investor special

I am sure that all of you investors know how difficult it is to find (and successfully get under contract) decent single family properties in the ‘under $150,000’ market.

I now have access to a package of 10 single family homes in east Lantana…fully leased…NO HOA…owner stated rental income of $106,200/yr..

They are not, and will not be listed on the MLS and are sold as 1 complete package.

The price is $1,050,000

Call me quickly at 561.602.1258 or email me at Investors@thejacksonteam.com (please include your proof of funds with your email).

Steve Jackson

How Santa refuels his sleigh

Did you purchase your home in 2012?

Don’t forget to file for your Homestead exemption and get a  $50,000 (or more, depending upon which exemptions you qualify for) reduction in your assessed value for 2013.

click anywhere on the image below

 

If you have any questions…give me a call at 561…602.1258

Steve Jackson

 

Z.I.R.P. and mortgage rates

Below is an excerpt from a recent article by Barry Habib of MBS Highway

Quite possibly you have heard of the Federal Reserves ZIRP or Zero Interest Rate Policy…below is a good explanation of how it works and the tangential effect on mortgage rates.

Imagine that you are a Money Manager, managing a $100 Million Dollar portfolio. You can borrow at very low rates that are close to the Fed Funds Rate. Call it a 0 .5% cost to borrow. You can buy mortgage bonds that pay 3% . It looks like a nice profit spread of 2 .5% . But the real magic happens when you use leverage. You can buy those bonds with only 10% cash . So you can take your $100 Million and buy $1 Billion worth of bonds, by borrowing the other $900 Million at a cost of only 0 .5% . The 2 .5% profit on the $1Billion is equal to a whopping 25% on your $100 Million dollar portfolio...making you a great money manager, and a heck of a lot of fees. This is called "The Carry Trade". But one sure way to lose money on this trade is to have your borrowing cost rise. So, as the data begins to approach the Fed's targets, managers will be less willing to buy mortgage bonds and begin to unwind their holdings. This selling of mortgage bonds will cause mortgage rates to rise, and perhaps at a surprising pace. We will need to be on guard about this in the months ahead.

The above is important to buyers and sellers alike…for buyers, it is quite obvious how interest rates have an effect on the purchase of a home. an increase in rates from 4% to 5% has the following effect on a $250,000 loan.

Principal and interest payment of $250,000 at 4% is $1,194/mon

Principal and interest payment on $250,000 at 5% is $1,342/mon…that is a 12% increase in payment and can have a significant effect on the size of the loan you can qualify for.

If the rates go to 6% you would be at almost $1,500/mon

So, if you are a buyer, you have try to predict the future of interest rates and home prices (we’re here to help you with that!). Should you buy now at the lowest rates in history, or gamble that home prices will fall if interest rates rise? Can you chart out the ‘rates vs. price’ so you are aware of the optimum rate/price relationship?

And, as a seller, are you up for the gamble? Are you on the side of the “we’ve hit bottom” and it’s all up from here crowd or, after reading the above, do you think that now may be an opportune time to “get while the getting is good”?

 

We are not your typical real estate agents. We’ll help you decipher all of the ‘noise’ relating to the housing market and what decision is in YOUR best interests. You won’t get ‘objection handling techniques’, you won’t get ‘memorized dialogs’…in short, you won’t get a salesman that tries to influence and steer you in one direction or another. You’ll get honest advice tailored to your specific needs, goals and situation.

Call me directly at 561.602.1258 if you’d like to discuss anything real estate related.

And, as always, thanks for reading

Is housing going to get pushed over the cliff too?

There’s been non-stop chatter about the “fiscal cliff” lately. So I thought that I should discuss the housing component of the ‘fall from the cliff’.

The two major issues that will have an effect on housing: capping the amount of mortgage interest some can deduct from their taxable income, and eliminating the tax exemption on debt forgiven when a bank agrees to forgive the debt on the loss they take on a home being sold for less than the mortgage amount, either through a short sale or foreclosure sale.

Also, a tax deduction on mortgage insurance is set to expire at the end of this year. Mortgage insurance is generally required of borrowers who make down payments of less than 20%, so eliminating the insurance deduction could raise costs for millions.

One more issue, not directly related to “the cliff” but on the same timeline, is the Federal Reserves “Operation Twist”, whereby the Fed (kind of) ‘trades’ short term securities for long term ones in an effort to keep long term rates, such as mortgage rates, extremely low.  If this comes to an end, especially in concert with the other fiscal cliff possibilities, it could be a disastrous combo for the tenuous housing recovery.

The National Association of Realtor (NAR) has made a clear call for help to sustain the housing market's progress in their Call for Action: Do No Harm to Housing. As stated on their website, "NAR's position is that the mortgage interest deduction is vital to the stability of the American housing market and economy and we will remain vigilant in opposing any future plan that modifies or excludes the deductibility of mortgage interest". A few days ago Speaker of the House John A. Boehner offered a potential path to compromise in year-end budget negotiation, as NAR spoke out that struggling homeowners need mortgage debt relief.

If the mortgage interest deduction is not eliminated, but scaled back to coincide with the current conforming loan limits for high-cost areas, (so rather than a million-dollar maximum limit, it might be scaled back to $625,000, for example, and interest on a mortgage higher than that figure would no longer be deductible), it may not have a major impact on the majority of housing markets.

But, the failure to renew the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act could have a disastrous impact on short sales, and subsequently an increase in foreclosed homes, which always leads to reduced home values. Michelle J. Adams, an attorney in Rockville, Md., with a large practice assisting distressed borrowers, said that "for some homeowners the amount forgiven is a couple of hundred thousand dollars." If Congress lets the provision lapse, "the amount (owed in taxes) will be so prohibitive that many owners will walk away" - or file for bankruptcy, she said. Under the tax code, most forms of forgiven debt are treated as ordinary income – (with the temporary exception granted by Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act on principal residences) - unless the borrower is insolvent.

Concerned for the potential impact on economic recovery, Zillow pointed to the fiscal cliff in late November, saying, “The housing market has found real momentum of its own, but is not immune from shocks to the broader economy,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. ”If negotiations centered on resolving the fiscal cliff don’t inspire confidence in investors and consumers alike, recent home value gains – and, as a result, falling negative equity rates – could stall.”

Like I have been advising my seller clients for months…I believe that the current strong housing indicators are temporary…and if you are on the market or thinking about selling, I suggest you get it done soon!

If you’d like to discuss your situation with me, call me directly at 561.602.1258

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all !

Recent email I received:

"This guy at work says that Bank of America is paying homeowners to do a short sale through some new program called an HIN Incentive. I Googled HIN Incentive and couldn't really find any information on this program. Do you know what it is?

Answer: There are so many short sale programs similar to the HIN Incentive but none quite like it. It's a program initiated by Bank of America for certain preapproved short sales and works best if you don't have more than 1 loan on your home. Second lien holders often object to the cash payments.

The HIN Incentive is an enhanced cash payment incentive, paid directly to the seller at the time of closing if certain conditions are met.

How Does the HIN Incentive Work?

Let's say you have a first mortgage with Bank of America at $300,000, and your property today has fallen in value to $180,000. The HIN incentive is based on the sales price of the property, says Bank of America. The bank does not share its calculation formula.

One such seller qualified to receive almost $6,700. The enhanced relocation assistance or the HIN incentive was almost $4,200. The seller received her check at closing. It is subject to a 1099 for the existing tax year, which means the following year she will pay taxes on that payment because it is considered income for tax purposes. Still, free is free.

How Do you Apply for the HIN Incentive?

You can call Bank of America to see if you qualify for the HIN Incentive. However, you will receive a customer service representative. I hate to say this but the odds are about 50 / 50 that a person who answers the phone will have answers to your questions.

You can also ask us to open a file in Equator for you. That is the easiest and most pain-free way to begin the process. You will need to sign a third-party authorization. Once the file is opened in Equator, we will receive email confirmation. That email will be followed by another regarding borrower outreach.

BofA borrower Outreach means it is time for you to call the customer service number and discuss your foreclosure alternative options with Bank of America. One of those options is the non-government sponsored enterprise type of HAFA short sale program. Another is a GSE HAFA such as a Fannie Mae HAFA or a Freddie Mac HAFA. The qualifications for these programs vary.

Unlike the HAFA short sale, there is generally not much paperwork required for the Cooperative Short Sale program, apart from standard bank documents. By extension, there is little paperwork associated with the HIN incentive.

What Else Do You Need to Know About the HIN Incentive?

It's a fairly straight-forward process. After Bank of America qualifies the homeowner based on select investor guidelines, the bank will order a BPO (poor-mans appraisal) to establish fair market value. After market value has been established and the suggested selling/listing price has been given to us by the bank, we then list your home as a preapproved short sale. This means both you and the property qualifies for a short sale. Here are some other interesting bits of information about the HIN Incentive:

• Payments vary between $5,000 and $30,000.
• Homeowners can use the money to pay liens or outstanding bills or fund a trip to Las Vegas.
• You cannot submit an offer/contract until you are preapproved for the HIN Incentive.
• The home does not need to be owner-occupied; it can be vacant
• The short sale must close by September 26, 2013.
• VA loans and FHA loans are not eligible for the HIN Incentive.
• If you do not qualify for the HIN Incentive, you might still qualify for the Cooperative Short Sale program or one of the HAFA programs.

If you think that you may be in a position to benefit from a short sale..give me a call today. All calls are strictly confidential.

My direct line is 561.602.1258…Steve Jackson

An alternate analysis on the accuracy of the call of a bottom in housing

Below are excerpts from an article by Michael Panzner of Panzner Insights,

There’s plenty of debate about—and money riding on—the question of whether we are in the midst of a sustainable recovery in the housing market. Nobody knows for sure, of course, but there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic.

For one thing, the supply of homes, in terms of what is currently on the market and what is potentially for sale whether or not prices rebound further—the so-called shadow inventory—remains significant relative to demand, even though data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that inventories of existing homes are back to where they were eight years ago.

Aside from the question of whether developments that have occurred since then—including the fact that their are more ways to sell property than by going through a broker—have distorted the inventory calculation, the composition of sales has changed from what it was. Nowadays, a much greater share of transactions are in the “distressed” category than before the bubble burst. Given that more than 20 percent (about 30% so far in 2012 here in Palm Beach County) of sales are foreclosures and short sales makes the current ratio look healthier than it is in comparable terms.

Needless to say, shadow inventory is far greater than it was during the go-go years, when people were happy to remain long despite a booming market. With prices having fallen sharply since then, we now have a situation akin to those seen in other post-collapse markets: Holders can turn seller on a heartbeat as prices move closer to what they paid or owe on their mortgages. Given that more than 20 percent of mortgagees are underwater (about 45% here in Palm Beach County), that represents a sizable overhang.

The tide of past, present, and future foreclosures—actual and de facto—has also left lenders with substantial holdings of “real estate owned” (REO) properties that will undoubtedly be offered for sale at some point. These are not voluntary investments being held for the long-term; they are unwanted assets that are costing money by the day to finance and maintain. According to HousingWire, nearly half of mortgage giant Fannie Mae’s REO holdings are unable to reach the market at present. (I would add that there can only be one reason for such a huge number of properties with loans in default that "can't" reach the market -- the federal government doesn't want them to reach the market. Might that have something to do with an upcoming election? Banks file foreclosure and/or get a short sale application but they cannot get approval from Fannie/Freddie and so nothing gets done. Here in Palm Beach County thousands of homes are occupied by owners who haven’t made a mortgage/tax/insurance payment for years).

(This does not even take into account all of the currently delinquent loans…recent stats reveal that, in this market, when a homeowner gets 90 days past due, there is less than a 5% cure rate…those other 95% have to eventually end up as short sale, deeds-in lieu, or bank owned…all negatively impacting the market)

It’s not just about supply, however. Demand is significantly less than it used to be for a variety of reasons, most notably because it is much harder to get financing now than it was when the property market was booming. Despite some recent loosening of credit conditions and ultra-low mortgage rates, anecdotal and other reports make it clear that lenders are generally unwilling to grant loans except on stringent terms to the highest quality borrowers.

But even if you discount the fact that traditional home buyers are having a difficult time borrowing the money they need to buy a home, it’s apparent that other factors, including societal shifts, are undermining demand—and will likely continue doing so for the foreseeable future.

Number one among them are economic conditions in the post-crisis era, which are having an adverse affect on prospective homeowners’ willingness and ability to take the plunge. A structurally weak employment market, (especially here in South Florida) where temporary and low-paid services jobs comprise the lion’s share of the jobs being created and where the odds of finding another, better paying, and more secure opportunity are low, is not the catalyst for people to step up and make what could be the biggest investment of their lives.

Perspectives about what really matters are evolving as well, especially among the younger generation. Whereas in the past the milestones of getting married, buying a car, and acquiring a home represented the natural progression of things when children reached adulthood, priorities have changed. A recent Bloomberg report noted that 4G wireless telephones trumped V-8 cars for the 80 million U.S. consumers born from 1981 to 2001. Meanwhile, the still-ailing post-crisis economy has convinced a growing number of young people to embrace “the age of frugality.”

In addition to shifting preferences, many of those who are at the lower end of the demographic scale already have a big financial burden hanging around their necks, which precludes them from taking on other big commitments like a mortgage—that is, student loans. Aside from the fact that, for many graduates, these obligations are far higher than they were, proportionally speaking, even a decade ago, the prospect of being in the hole for as far as the eye can leave a lasting impression on impressionable individuals…

Lastly and perhaps most importantly, demand is being undermined by broader-scale mood swings. People are beginning to accept that it isn’t necessary to own your own home, nor is it necessarily a long-term goal. That might seem like heresy in a country where property ownership has been viewed as a God-given right, but when you consider that in economic powerhouse Germany the share of residential property accounted for by rentals is more than 60 percent in most states and 90 percent in the capital, Berlin, it’s not all that strange.

In sum, while it is easy to focus on the traditional indicators of supply and demand and start believing that the long-awaited recovery in the property market has arrived at last, the fact is that much has changed in the wake of the events of the past decade, a development that is likely to weigh on prices for many years to come.

In a related article from Reuters, on October 5th, Federal Reserve Board Governor Elizabeth Duke said “The housing bust has saddled the United States with an "extraordinary" level of abandoned properties that inflict heavy costs on the wider community and government aid may be needed to tackle the problem…Duke noted that although unsold home inventory levels have declined as real estate has picked up, the number of abandoned homes remains stubbornly high.

Quoting Census Bureau data, Duke said vacant homes for sale had fallen to 1.6 million in the second quarter of 2012…but pointed out there were still 2-1/2 times as many vacant homes out there, they are just not for sale.

If you’ve read this far…I congratulate you! If you are contemplating buying or selling…we should talk, soon.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

561.602.1258