The 'experts' wrong?...what a shock!

May existing home sales plunged far below expectations, coming in at an annualized -2.2% rate, compared to consensus expectation of +6.0%...This is the second worst monthly drop in history, and shows just how very wrong economists are, and how they will all have to revise their outlooks lower...

Also, in the 1st quarter of this year, 96% of originations were backed by one of the GSE's (Fannie/Freddie). i.e. there is still no viable mortgage securitization market outside of the government.

San Messina beauty...

Journeys End market activity...and some other stats

Only 2 reported sales the past 30 days....

1. 6946 Houlton...Kensington, Short Sale: $310k
2. 6995 Houlton...Buckingham, Short Sale: $299k

Here is what is currently 'under contract'...3 homes currently...some have been under contract for a long time as they are short sales, and these negitiations can take anywhere from 60 days to over a year in some cases!

1. A Laredo on C Durham...Short Sale, has been under contract since Dec. 9th, 2009
2. A Kensington on Houlton...Short Sale...went under contract for the 4th time on April 5th
3. A Pecos on C Durham...not a short sale or bank owned...went under contract on April 30th

There are 19 homes currently on the market.
7 Short Sales
1 bank Owned
11 traditional sales

Looking at the sales figures for the previous 12 months - 24 total sales. If we were to apply this rate of sales to the current 'for sale' inventory, we arrive at an absorbtion rate of 9.5 months to liquidate the current inventory on the market in Journeys End.

Thanks again for taking the time to read our blog. If there is a subject you would like us to post on, please send us an email.

Steve and Jackie Jackson

What is everyone searching for?

Recently there has been a ton of good news being reported in the real estate segment. Resale home sales were up huge...new home sales were up big too...every talking head is predicting the end of the housing slump. Not so fast. I have done some research regarding some little publicized web traffic statistics, and that tells us..The Rest Of The Story!

The company, Hitwise, a web-traffic analysis company, recently published the following trend chart:

What this chart reveals is that year-over-year visits to websites in the Real Estate category are down 22% for April 2010...that is 11 consecutive months of traffic decline for visits to Real Estate For Sale sites! It is painfuly obvious that buyer interest is declining. Now, lets look at another Hitwise chart:

The above chart from Hitwise reports that visits to “Home and Apt Rental” websites are up 45% in April 2010 year-over-year, and that represents the tenth consecutive month of increases!

Finally, Hitwise reports: “The most popular term ranked by the overall share of search clicks is ‘apartments for rent’, which has increased 162% for the 4 weeks ending May 8, 2010 when compared to the same time period 2 years ago.” For the Home and Apt Rental websites, visits have increased year-over-year for the past 10 months. 

Now, every real estate agent will tell you that 90% or more of all homebuyers use the Internet during the home purchase process... So, a 22% decline for traffic to real estate sites, combined with 45% increase for rentals suggests that the market demand for housing sales might be a whole lot softer, and headed in a different direction, than widely reported economic data indicates.

People will choose to rent for 2 main reasons...they can't buy a home or they don't want to buy a home.
A large number of people today who CAN'T buy fall into a two categories: 1) No job/job or income instability, 2) credit issues. Hopefully, the job situation will improve consistently going forward, but the number of people with credit issues will most likely continue to rise. Think about the statistic in this following chart: (look at the very left bar in the graph)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The state with the greatest percentage of people at least 30 days late on their mortgage is...FLORIDA! Over 1 out of every 4 people with a mortgage is 30 or more days behind.
 
It is common knowledge that missing mortgage payments will deliver a pretty significant hit to ones credit score. And with the abject failure of the Govt. HAMP (loan modification) program, it is a fairly safe bet that a large number of people currently behind on their mortgage will end up eventually either losing their home in a foreclosure action or successfully completing a short sale (the much better alternative). In either case, these folks will not be purchasing a homeduring the next 2 years, or more. These are ones who can't buy a home.
 
Then you have large segment who still believe that it is not a good time to buy..they are renters by choice, and their numbers are growing daily.
 
Now, I personally know that many investors are plowing money into the real estate market, although they are very selective and are making decisions that factor in NO appreciation for 5 or more years. And, there are still buyers out there. They are balancing the historically low interest rates, low home prices and reduced competition against the chance that home values will decline further. But most of my buyers today have a long enough time horizon to give them the confidence that the combo of interest rate and home prices makes it a good time to buy.
 
Any homeowners reading this who are considering moving in the next 24 months or so should seriously consider getting your home on the market sooner, rather than later. Sell, get you money in the bank now, and rent for a while if you need to. It may be a bit inconvenient, but it appears that this may be the smartest move.

Journeys End Foreclosure Report

May 25th, 2010

As of today, there are 35 Journeys End homes in some stage of foreclosure. (On 4/1/10 there were 31)

>11 on C. Durham

>10 on Houlton Cir

>7 on Finamore Cir

>1 on Kaleb

>2 on Melissa

> 2 on Bither Way

>1 on Nikki

>1 on Eugene Ct

Sold in the last 60 days - Journeys End

1) Houlton Circle - Buckingham, pool - $365,000
2) C Durham - Short Sale Taos - $333,000
3) Ethan - Yuma - $315,000
4) Kaleb - Bank Owned Taos, pool - $365,500

CBS The Early Show...Rebecca Jarvis; Selecting a real estate agent

Yesterday, Rebecca Jarvis on CBS The Early show did a piece on how to avoid the common mistakes in selling real estate...her #1 mistake: Picking a bad agent

But, through lack of research or lack of expeirence she failed to give any concrete advice on how to judge if you are picking a good agent or a bad agent. The best advice is be diligent and careful when hiring an agent...you won't know you hired the wrong one until it is too late.

Personally, I have seen sellers select an agent because (in their own words) "they send me postcards all the time". Others have selected neighbors, friends, church associates etc. as their agent with no other qualifying criteria. Still others pick the agent that tells the the highest listing price.

A recent development is the "mega agent" who advertises under their name but actually has less experienced "team members" handle just about all aspects of a transaction, all the time selling the client on how this is good for them. The "mega agent" doesn't meet with the client, doesn't write or negotiate the contracts, doesn't interact with the buyers agent and may not ever speak with the client...they are involved in the clients transaction in name only.

While this is just my opinion and there may be no way to prove this, I would argue that the best agents occupy the "80th to 90th percentile" of a bell curve of relative real estate production. I say this because my years in the business have led me to believe that the absolute "top" agents in terms of total # of homes sold tend to be focused primarily on SALES and SELF-PROMOTION and most of the actual work is delegated to other individuals, while the agents just below that tend to be more client-centric and personally involved in the clients transaction.

It's time to get a CLUE

HAFA...all the benefits of a regular short sale...hafa the headaches!

Monday, April 5th, was the 1st day, officially, of the new government sponsored intiative, HAFA: Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives. HAFA was introduced to simplify and streamline the short sale process and to provide incentives for the homeowner, loan servicer and lender/investor.

We have already received specialized, in depth training on this new program and will briefly summarize the features and benefits below:

Qualifying Factors

• Must be HAMP eligible
• Principal residence only (must be living there, with 1 allowable exception)
• 1st lien mortgage originated prior to 2009
• Mortgage balance less than $729,750
• Mortgage payment exceeds 31% of monthly gross income
• NOT a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac backed loan

Here are the Fannie and Freddie loan look-up tools:
Fannie Mae Loan Lookup
Freddie Mac Loan Lookup

How is the HAFA program different or better than what is being done now?
The main problem, for both sellers and buyers, with traditional short sales was that they took too long and the process was wholly unpredictable. It was always difficult to keep buyers interested in, and committed to, the process. The HAFA program was designed to speed up and standardize the short sale process and give incentives for each short sale completed. During a non-HAFA short sale, there is no government incentive for banks to help you. Also, a VERY important benefit to homeowners is the requirement that participating lenders release you of any further libility for the deficiency amount!

What are the incentives?

• As a qualifying homeowner, you would be entitled to a $3000 "relocation" incentive payment at the time of closing and funding of your short sale.
• Servicers participating in the program will receive $1,500 for a completed short sale
• Investors (lenders) can receive up to $2,000 for payments made to junior lienholders
• Junior lienholders can receive up to $6000

Do I have to hire a real estate professional for a HAFA short sale?


Yes, but it won't cost you anything. Under HAFA, our fee will be deducted from the sale proceeds and paid by the lender. It is a requirement of a HAFA short sale that you work with a real estate professional throughout the HAFA short sale process. The Jackson Realty Group is now the areas HAFA specialists, having received the most up-to-date training available on the HAFA program.

Also, any time there is a new program announced, there are people who set up scams based upon the publics ignorance of the details, and the HAFA program will be no different. Other than an attorney you may hire to assist with a pending foreclosure or associated issue, beware of anyone requesting "up front fees" to assist you in processing a HAFA short sale. MakingHomeAffordable.gov (MHA) provides the following guidelines:


• Beware of anyone who asks you to pay a fee in exchange for counseling service or modification of a delinquent loan.

• Scam artists often target homeowners who are struggling to meet their mortgage commitment or anxious to sell their homes.

• Beware of people who pressure you to sign papers immediately, or who try to convince you that they can "save" your home if you sign paperwork or transfer over the deed to your house.

• Never make a mortgage payment to anyone other than your mortgage company without their approval.

• Do not sign over the deed to your property to any organization or individual unless you are working directly with your mortgage company to forgive your debt.

If you would like to meet with me to discuss if you may qualify for this program and to review the process as well as your options, please call me at 561-602-1258 or CLICK HERE and send me an email with your contact information.