Experts and news outlets surprised: Home sales plunge!

But if you read this blog…YOU shouldn’t have been surprised at all. I have been counseling my sellers for many months now…you want to be the NEXT home to sell!

Here are some snippets from some of today's press releases:

1) Sales of previously occupied homes plunged last month to the lowest level in 15 years, despite the lowest mortgage rates in decades and bargain prices in many areas.

July's sales fell by more than 27 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. It was the largest monthly drop on records dating back to 1968, and sharp declines were recorded in all regions of the country.

2) With home sales plunging to their lowest level in 15 years, economists warn that a double-dip in housing prices is just around the corner, threatening to further slow the overall recovery.

Existing home sales sank 27.2% in July, twice as much as analysts expected, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units. Much of that drop is attributed to the end of the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit. Sales of single-family homes, which account for a bulk of the transactions, are at the lowest level since May 1995.

Inventory has also continued to climb, rising 2.5% to 3.98 million existing homes for sale. That represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest since October 1982 when it stood at 13.8 months. A six-month of supply is considered normal.

Chart of existing home sales…watch out for that falling knife!

"....Purchases of existing homes plunged 27.2 percent to a 3.83 million...Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 74 economists ranged from 3.96 million to 5.3 million..." Good job experts

Still want to listen to the ‘experts’?

If you are even thinking that you may want/need to sell anytime in the near and not-so-near future…please give me a call so we can have a lively discussion regarding my recommendations. My direct line is 561-602-1258

Thanks for reading,

Steve

Foreclosure report for Journeys End as of 8/4/10

Lots foreclosures in Journeys End...and lots more to come.

Now, just because I report them as "foreclosures" does not mean that they are owned by the bank and are for sale for pennies on the dollar....at least not yet. What it means is that these homes have a Lis Pendens filed on them. From Nolo Law Dictionary: Lis Pendens: Latin for "a suit pending." A written notice that a lawsuit has been filed concerning real estate, involving either the title to the property or a claimed ownership interest in it.

There are currently 35 Journeys End homes reported to be in foreclosure as of today. A few of the ones on this list have already been taken back by the bank at the courthouse sale. Below I will report them by street, alphabetically.

• Bither - 3
• C Durham - 9
• Eugene - 1
• Finamore - 5
• Houlton - 11
• Kaleb - 1
• Kevin - 1
• Kirsten - 1
• Melissa - 1
• Nikki - 1
• Wilbur - 1

If you are 1 of these 35 homes, or if you may be on this list next month...PLEASE call me today so you can learn what options you have and which is the best one for your particular situation. Don't ignore the issue...it won't just go away, and "letting the bank take it" is most likely the worst option you have. Here is my direct line: 561-602-1258

Inflation? Deflation?

Every day, from cable news to the local paper, we are told that inflation is coming...then the next expert says we are in a deflationary spiral...what does it all mean and whom do we believe?

It would seem that everyone is right...here is the best and easiest to explain/understand definition/comparison-contrast of inflation and deflation:

I've seen some quotes equating to deflation as the things you own, and inflation as the things you need. Close, but the real explanation is more like this:

Price declines are occuring in goods/services sectors backed by debt resulting from contracting credit...things that you would normally use a loan/credit to buy (deflation). Price increases are occurring in goods/services sectors acquired with money resulting from increasing money supply (inflation), (things like food, utilities, gas for the car, etc ).

Ben can print money 'til the cows come home, showering every citizen with $10k, $100k, $1m per year/quarter/month. All that will happen is a direct escalation in prices of assets not backed by debt. Price increases for items backed by debt will not resume/recur until there is an underlying organic demand for credit and a corresponding easing in credit terms (inflation). That is, the so-called final (ie private) demand.

And there you have it...

Mortgage applications at a 13 year low...so why is that important?

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that demand for loans to purchase U.S. homes sunk to a 13-year low last week, and refinancing demand also slid despite near record-low mortgage rates. Requests for loans to buy homes dropped 3.1 percent in the week ended July 9, after adjusting for the Independence Day holiday, to the lowest level since December 1996, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. said....Rock-bottom borrowing costs are helping borrowers with pristine credit to buy and those who still have equity in their homes to refinance.

Take a look at this statistic and chart below: The refinance share of mortgage activity remained constant at 78.7 percent of total applications…so, at a 13 year low number, only 21% of the mortgage applications were for new purchases! On an unadjusted basis, the volume of purchase applications is 43% lower than the same week last year!



If even at sub-5% rates buyers are not interested, what’s going to happen to buying interest if (when) rates go up?

• Unemployed people do not buy homes.
• People who have had their hours or salary reduced 20-30% do not buy homes.
• People with a credit score of 599 or less (25% of the population) do not qualify to buy a home.
• People who lost 30% of their home equity can not sell their existing home to buy a new one.

Where I see the most activity (and a lot of multiple offer situations) is in the sub $150k range…where you can buy and have payments less than a comparable rental. Maybe this is what will happen going forward in all price ranges…activity and competition will greatly increase when the home price/mortgage rate equation delivers monthly payments at or close to what it would cost to rent a comparable home. And, it does not, necessarily have to come from lower prices or lower interest rates….if rental rates increase, that will be the ‘flip side’ of the equation. Rising rental rates, in my humble opinion, are quite possible given the scary statistic of sub 599 credit score Americans. Going forward I can see many, many more people throwing in the “credit score towel”…we will have a decade of renters (and this could raise rental rates)…income reduction, job loss, foreclosures, bankruptcy…some times up to ten years to clear/restore your credit without taking affirmative credit restoration steps.

If you’d like to discuss how this all affects your plans to sell or buy, please give me a call on my direct line at 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading,
Steve Jackson

A 4th of July gift for you...

How about starting a 4th of July family tradition that doesn't include eating meat cooked outdoors or lighting fireworks?

Below I have given you 4 links to 4 very important documents.

Why not get the family/friends together and read and discuss what is actually behind this holiday. Certainly not all 4 at once...but maybe read the short Declaration of Independence before everyone starts dinner?

1. The Declaration of Independence
2. Constitution
3. Bill of Rights
4. Amendments to the Constitution

Enjoy the holiday...and be safe!

And here is a beautiful acapella version of the national anthem


Steve Jackson

Disastrous home sales report - July 1, 2010

The experts expected home sales to drop once the homebuyer tax credit lapsed at the end of April, but the depth of the decrease was shocking (only to the “experts”).

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales fell a whopping 30% in May. Their index, which measures signed sales contracts but not closed sales, plunged to 77.6 from 110.9 in April. It's even off 15.9% from a year ago when the nation was barely emerging from the recession.

The pending home sales report is a disaster," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research. "Sales fell off a cliff after the tax credit expired. It's the biggest monthly decline ever and the index is at its lowest level since NAR began tracking it in 2001."

(As expected)…Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, downplayed the damage a bit. According to him, customers rushed into deals to claim the credit, borrowing from May sales. Once the economic recovery comes into full swing, housing markets will heat up. "If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year," said Yun, "and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions."

The question is when -- or if -- the job market will ever bounce back.

"We're not creating jobs," said Larson. "The housing problems now are being driven by broad economic problems."

Disastrous home sales report - Jul. 1, 2010

The 'experts' wrong?...what a shock!

May existing home sales plunged far below expectations, coming in at an annualized -2.2% rate, compared to consensus expectation of +6.0%...This is the second worst monthly drop in history, and shows just how very wrong economists are, and how they will all have to revise their outlooks lower...

Also, in the 1st quarter of this year, 96% of originations were backed by one of the GSE's (Fannie/Freddie). i.e. there is still no viable mortgage securitization market outside of the government.

San Messina beauty...

Journeys End market activity...and some other stats

Only 2 reported sales the past 30 days....

1. 6946 Houlton...Kensington, Short Sale: $310k
2. 6995 Houlton...Buckingham, Short Sale: $299k

Here is what is currently 'under contract'...3 homes currently...some have been under contract for a long time as they are short sales, and these negitiations can take anywhere from 60 days to over a year in some cases!

1. A Laredo on C Durham...Short Sale, has been under contract since Dec. 9th, 2009
2. A Kensington on Houlton...Short Sale...went under contract for the 4th time on April 5th
3. A Pecos on C Durham...not a short sale or bank owned...went under contract on April 30th

There are 19 homes currently on the market.
7 Short Sales
1 bank Owned
11 traditional sales

Looking at the sales figures for the previous 12 months - 24 total sales. If we were to apply this rate of sales to the current 'for sale' inventory, we arrive at an absorbtion rate of 9.5 months to liquidate the current inventory on the market in Journeys End.

Thanks again for taking the time to read our blog. If there is a subject you would like us to post on, please send us an email.

Steve and Jackie Jackson

What is everyone searching for?

Recently there has been a ton of good news being reported in the real estate segment. Resale home sales were up huge...new home sales were up big too...every talking head is predicting the end of the housing slump. Not so fast. I have done some research regarding some little publicized web traffic statistics, and that tells us..The Rest Of The Story!

The company, Hitwise, a web-traffic analysis company, recently published the following trend chart:

What this chart reveals is that year-over-year visits to websites in the Real Estate category are down 22% for April 2010...that is 11 consecutive months of traffic decline for visits to Real Estate For Sale sites! It is painfuly obvious that buyer interest is declining. Now, lets look at another Hitwise chart:

The above chart from Hitwise reports that visits to “Home and Apt Rental” websites are up 45% in April 2010 year-over-year, and that represents the tenth consecutive month of increases!

Finally, Hitwise reports: “The most popular term ranked by the overall share of search clicks is ‘apartments for rent’, which has increased 162% for the 4 weeks ending May 8, 2010 when compared to the same time period 2 years ago.” For the Home and Apt Rental websites, visits have increased year-over-year for the past 10 months. 

Now, every real estate agent will tell you that 90% or more of all homebuyers use the Internet during the home purchase process... So, a 22% decline for traffic to real estate sites, combined with 45% increase for rentals suggests that the market demand for housing sales might be a whole lot softer, and headed in a different direction, than widely reported economic data indicates.

People will choose to rent for 2 main reasons...they can't buy a home or they don't want to buy a home.
A large number of people today who CAN'T buy fall into a two categories: 1) No job/job or income instability, 2) credit issues. Hopefully, the job situation will improve consistently going forward, but the number of people with credit issues will most likely continue to rise. Think about the statistic in this following chart: (look at the very left bar in the graph)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The state with the greatest percentage of people at least 30 days late on their mortgage is...FLORIDA! Over 1 out of every 4 people with a mortgage is 30 or more days behind.
 
It is common knowledge that missing mortgage payments will deliver a pretty significant hit to ones credit score. And with the abject failure of the Govt. HAMP (loan modification) program, it is a fairly safe bet that a large number of people currently behind on their mortgage will end up eventually either losing their home in a foreclosure action or successfully completing a short sale (the much better alternative). In either case, these folks will not be purchasing a homeduring the next 2 years, or more. These are ones who can't buy a home.
 
Then you have large segment who still believe that it is not a good time to buy..they are renters by choice, and their numbers are growing daily.
 
Now, I personally know that many investors are plowing money into the real estate market, although they are very selective and are making decisions that factor in NO appreciation for 5 or more years. And, there are still buyers out there. They are balancing the historically low interest rates, low home prices and reduced competition against the chance that home values will decline further. But most of my buyers today have a long enough time horizon to give them the confidence that the combo of interest rate and home prices makes it a good time to buy.
 
Any homeowners reading this who are considering moving in the next 24 months or so should seriously consider getting your home on the market sooner, rather than later. Sell, get you money in the bank now, and rent for a while if you need to. It may be a bit inconvenient, but it appears that this may be the smartest move.

Journeys End Foreclosure Report

May 25th, 2010

As of today, there are 35 Journeys End homes in some stage of foreclosure. (On 4/1/10 there were 31)

>11 on C. Durham

>10 on Houlton Cir

>7 on Finamore Cir

>1 on Kaleb

>2 on Melissa

> 2 on Bither Way

>1 on Nikki

>1 on Eugene Ct