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NAR…”OOPS”!

I think it's time to tell everyone what I have known for a long time now...What the acronym NAR actually stands for. I know that they would like you to believe that it is 'National Association of Realtors', but the real truth, revealed to all recently is that NAR stands for: 'Numbers Aren't Real'!

The NAR US Housing Home Sales Figures were artificially inflated by at least 11% per year for the period of 2007-2010. Nice work NAR! They said there were a few "errors' in data collection and interpretation". And I think that it goes back to BEFORE 2007...why did they only go back and revise to that year? “Sales were weaker than people thought (or were lead to believe by NAR reports),” said chagrined NAR spokesman Walter Malony. Data firm CoreLogic accused the NAR of over-counting home sales back in May of this year. At the time, the organization insisted that any issues with their numbers would be “relatively minor.” Unfortunately, NAR economist Lawrence Yun has revised that prediction to say that the changes in reporting will be “meaningful,” adding that “this means the housing market’s downturn was deeper than what was initially thought”. 

Being in the business every day for a long time now, I began to see a slowdown in the 1st half of 2006 and an 'accelleration' in price and volume declines right at the beginning of 2007. My analysis shows that the air started to come out of the bubble, at least in Palm Beach County, right at the end of 2005. I could go in to their methodology and poke a thousand holes in it...but I'd bore everyone but myself.

The readers who regularly read my blog posts will know that I don't "toe the line" when it comes to the NAR/FAR, etc. Coincidentally, a blog post I wrote just about 5 weeks ago, http://winstontrails.blogspot.com/2011/11/if-they-keep-predicting-market.html skewers the NAR for their inept (intentionally misleading) comments.

Below are the charts that reflect the adjustments.

                     

 

 

 

 

 

 

So...what does this all mean?  Why now? And what is the effect of this revision?

Well, I think the "why now" question can be answered by NAR being called out on their numbers by CoreLogic a few months ago.

But the "what does this all mean" question has many possible answers depending upon the angle it is being viewed from. My obvious, but cynical, view is that the NAR and administration can now more easily report "improvments" in home sales. The new sales figures will be compared to the re-benchmarked historical sales and will paint a rosy housing and economic picture going forward. And if the reporters (TV and print) continue to just repeat data rather than dig in to the meaning of the data, the re-benchmarked (lower) figures will fade into distant memory...and the 'improving home sales numbers' will be evidence of our 'robust and recovering' economy.

Lastly, what does this effect? This question is better answered by a formally trained economist, but I have to believe that these numbers somehow impact GDP in a negative sense, retroactively.

If you've read this far, I commend you! Seriously though, if you are considering your options, whether it be selling or purchasing real estate, call me. You don't want to take the chance of ending up getting advice and consulting with an NAR drone who is taught to memorize "objection handling dialogs' and sales tactics.

My direct line is 561-602-1258 or

As always…thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

A Thanksgiving message to our readers

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If they keep predicting a market bottom…eventually they’ll all be right!

 

Just to say it at the outset of this post…why don’t any of the reporters, be it newspaper, online outlets or television, ever do any research and ask any tough questions when they continue to interview and quote the “experts” regarding housing?

Case in point: Here is a headline of an article/interview of Zillow chief economist, Stan Humphries, 18 months ago:

As Housing Market Nears Bottom, Pent-Up Supply Waits…And here is the prediction directly from the article: We forecast that the nation will hit a bottom in home values in the third quarter of this year, (which would have been July-Sept 2010) but that there will be negligible appreciation in home values for three to five years after we’ve reached bottom…

Case-Shiller, an oft quoted research firm has this on-the-money prediction from an interview from November 30th 2009:

U.S. home prices are unlikely to fall much further in the next year even after a “discouraging” report on values in September, said Karl Case, the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Index.

“If I were betting even odds, I’d bet that we don’t have much further decline, but that we bounce along the bottom,” Case, a retired professor of economics at Wellesley College, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview…

And then here is a quote from an interview Shiller did less than 60 days ago: SHILLER: “House Prices Probably Won’t Hit Bottom For Years”

And the icing on the cake has been our own chief economist(s) of the National Association of Realtors:

04/2006: We can expect a historically strong housing market moving forward, earmarked by generally balanced conditions across the country and fairly stable levels of home sales with some month-to-month fluctuations.”, NAR

07/2006: “Right now we are on course for a soft-landing in housing.”, NAR

10/2006: “The worst is behind us, as far as a market correction. This is likely the trough for sales. When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market.”, NAR.

12/2006: “At least the bottom appears to have already occurred. It looks like figures will be improving.”, NAR.

01/2007: “It appears we have established a bottom” David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist.

07/2007: “Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year.”, NAR

11/2007: “I don’t anticipate any further major sales declines,” Yun said. However, the NAR didn’t anticipate the sales declines of the past two years, and it’s been predicting a bottom nearly every month since early 2006. (from Marketwatch)

02/2008: Reuters reports that “The NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the market is ‘scratching the bottom,’ with sales holding at a deflated rate of around 5 million units for the past several months.”

02/2008, There is no chance of a large price decline in Rockford, Lawrence Yun told a crowd of more than 400 at Cliffbreakers, 700 W. Riverside Blvd. There is not a price bubble in Rockford., BusinessRockford.com (see July, 2009 news report below)

07/2008: There are signs of pent up demand . I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn, Yun said.

12/2008: I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. Ex-NAR Chief Economist Lareah.

04/2009: “We are close to the bottom, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Once home sales begin to rise that could boost home buying confidence and get others off the sidelines.”

04/2009: The “worst may be over” in parts of the West, said Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist.

07/2009: Follow up from 2/08 quote above: BusinessRockford.com – The local housing market showed few signs of rebounding in the first half of 2009, with sales of single-family homes and condominiums falling nearly 20 percent and median sale prices falling in all but two of the Rock River Valley’s largest municipalities... In Rockford, the median prices of the 61104 ZIP code are down 52.3 percent from the first six months of 2008, dropping from $64,950 to just $31,000.

Now, more than ever, it is so important to work with an agent that will consult, diagnose and recommend solutions based upon a multitude of factors…with the MOST important one being; what is in YOUR best interest.

In the past several years, I have ‘converted’ many buyers into renters, but also, some renters into buyers, because that's what we decided, together was the best option for them. I have also dissuaded many sellers from becoming ‘landlords by default’ and putting tenants in their homes while waiting for “prices to go up’ because they didn’t want to “give their house away”. On the flip side of that coin, I just had a conversation with a prospective client yesterday and we decided AGAINST selling, as the cash-flow the home would generate, along with the tax benefits of renting outweighed the prospect of home value declines…their time horizon was sufficiently long to mitigate the risk when compared to the monthly cash flow.

If you would like to discuss all of the factors that you should be considering, whether it be on the selling or buying side, please call me at 561-602-1258…or email me at Steve@TheJacksonTeam.com

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

Home values…Negative equity…etc

Nationally, on a year-over-year basis, Zillow reports that home values were down 4.4 percent with the Zillow Home Value Index at $171,500. Overall, this quarter could have looked a lot worse considering all of the economic headwinds and turbulence that materialized over the summer. In terms of strict fundamentals, housing affordability looks compelling with big resets in home value levels and historically low mortgage rates. At this point, however, it’s clearly an issue of confidence, and high unemployment and economic uncertainty are not helping on this front. While we still have a ways to go in terms of home value depreciation, the pace at which home values are falling has declined considerably during the course of this year.  Nationally, foreclosure re-sales made up 18.9 percent of all sales in September, up slightly from the Q2 level of 18.8 percent. Foreclosure re-sales have, however, significantly increased from their Q3 2010 levels of 15.1 percent. This foreclosure pipeline will continue to depress home prices moving forward...the large shadow inventory will keep pressure on pushing home prices lower. That is why year over year home prices are still falling:

Negative Equity

National negative equity edged up slightly to 28.6 percent , (the local negative equity figure is close to 50% when you count all of the homes that are within 5% of being in a negative equity position) of all single-family homes with mortgages, compared to 26.8 percent in the second quarter. Negative equity fell in the second quarter on the basis of sharp improvements in depreciation rates and flat foreclosure rates. This quarter, however, home values remained relatively flat while foreclosure rates slowed further, and these two factors combined to increase negative equity. (Because Zillow and other firms that calculate negative equity use valuations, each which has some margin of error, and because the number of homeowners just barely in positive equity is somewhat greater than the number who are just barely in negative equity, the estimation error will tend to incorrectly place more people in negative equity (who are, in fact, in positive equity) than is offset by incorrectly placing people in positive equity (when, in fact, they are in negative equity). This subtle point has the possibility of producing an upward bias in the negative equity statistic.)

People selling their homes in Palm Beach County lost money nearly 46 percent of the time during the third quarter of this year, according to Zillow. The percentage of Palm Beach County properties that sold for a loss between July and the end of September, was a 3.4 percent increase from the previous quarter and at an elevated rate predicted to continue through at least next year.

Any homeowner who is in negative equity and who experiences a financial setback, like a job loss, income reduction or divorce, will find their options limited. To sell a home while underwater means the seller must pony up the difference between the mortgage and the current value, or negotiate a short sale with their bank. Therefore, negative equity does open homeowners up to risk they would not otherwise encounter, and it’s important to understand the total universe of homeowners who have this increased risk.

If you happen to fall in to the 50% at or near being upside down and you need to sell or just want to know what your options may be, visit our blog http://www.shortsales123.com/, read some of the posts, then give me a call at 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

Have a loan with BofA? NOW IS THE TIME TO DO A SHORT SALE!

If you have a loan with BofA and owe more on your loan than your home is worth…DO NOT WAIT…CALL ME TODAY

(you’ll see why below)

Below is a partial screen-shot of an email that I recently received from Bank of America.

 

They are offering a MINIMUM of $5,000 paid to you, the short sale seller, at closing…and possibly as much as $20,000!

BUT…we only have about 6 weeks to get started.

Really, no kidding…if you have a Bank of America (Countrywide too) loan and are upside down…this is a great opportunity.

My direct # is 561-602-1258…if you reach my voicemail, leave me a message…or you can also send me a text to that number.

 

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

Think buying a bank-owned home is a good deal? Not so fast!

We have always counseled our clients that when buying a bank-owned home there are many pitfalls and caveats...but this Massachusetts court decision casts a very dark shadow on foreclosure sales:



 I see many buyers and investors flock to foreclosures because they think that's where the best deals are...but considering the above risk as well as the fact that some of the overall best deals are NOT bank-owned properties..we suggest that our clients consider other options that meet their investment/lifestyle criteria.

Please feel free to call me on my direct line at 561-602-1258 if you have any questions about the above court decision or would like to discuss your investment goals.

Thanks for reading...Steve

Bank Risk Managers: Home Prices Won't Recover Until 2020

An interview of bank risk managers by Julie Crawshaw this past week on Moneynews.com revealed the sentiment that home prices are unlikely to recover before 2020 and mortgage defaults will persist for years.

The Professional Risk Managers’ International Association latest quarterly survey of bank risk professionals done for Fair Isaac Corporation shows that bankers expect delinquencies on consumer loans to rise, underwriting standards to become stricter, and the housing sector to continue struggling far into the future.

“Housing has been an enormous drag on the economy for over three years as U.S. households lost trillions of dollars in equity,” said Dr. Andrew Jennings, chief analytics officer at FICO and head of FICO Labs.

“While the housing sector will almost certainly gain strength during the next nine years, many bankers clearly believe prices will remain depressed for half a generation." "This puts the devastation of the housing crash into perspective.”

Among bankers surveyed, 49 percent said that recovery would not occur until 2020 and 73 percent believed mortgage defaults would remain elevated for at least five more years.

Furthermore, 46 percent of respondents expected mortgage delinquencies to increase over the next six months, and only 15 percent of respondents believed mortgage delinquencies will decline during that period. Only 15 percent of respondents expect mortgage delinquencies to decline during that period.

Housing prices nationwide could keep falling and might not bottom out for years, says Yale Professor and housing expert Robert Shiller.

In February, Shiller said housing prices could still fall 10 percent to 25 percent in real terms before hitting bottom. He recently told Yahoo’s The Daily Ticker he's standing by the prediction, adding that the economic big picture is looking worse. "I think the economic situation looks more precarious now," says Shiller, one of the authors of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which was down 4.1 percent year-on-year in July although up from previous months earlier this year.

My comments: These type of stories always intrigue me for the sheer fact of how superficial and incomplete reporting has become. The sentiment is interesting and accurate, on the surface. However, one of the most important details; What is the risk managers definition of “recovery”, was omitted. Does “recovery” mean that prices will regain the highs of 2005? Does it mean simply that 2020 is when they think prices will stop declining and resume a historical rate of modest appreciation?

And housing is inherently local in nature…while some markets may not “recover” until well after 2020…some have already neared a bottom.

Here in Palm Beach County, with about 50% of all homes with mortgages already in a negative equity position (under water) and a non-existent job recovery, wed are going to have continued mortgage defaults and distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned sales)…which will, in turn, continue the cycle of increasing the percentage of properties in a negative equity position and increasing the probability of further defaults.

I can guarantee, unless we have serious inflation, that 2020 will NOT bring back the good old days of 2005…and inflation may not even accomplish it without serious and stable job growth.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

Ocwen rolls out a new loan modification for underwater borrowers

 

Finally a lender gets a brain! Locally based Ocwen recently revealed a plan that incorporates many of the components of a loan mod/refinance that I suggested over a year ago: Reduce the loan amount to today's value, write off the ‘underwater portion’ over a number of years if the owners stays current on all mortgage obligation aspects, and if/when the home is sold, Ocwen will recoup some of the regained equity…Brilliant! The other big added benefit to the lender is that they get to draw up new loan documents without all of the defects that are being challenged in court right now…and I wouldn’t be surprised if they slip in some new restrictive language to the now docs too!

For all of you with an underwater Ocwen loan…CALL THEM TODAY to see if you can qualify, then call me and let me know the details of the process/qualification/final terms so I can spread the news.

Below are excerpts from the article that was in the Palm Beach post.

The company is rolling out a new loan modification plan for underwater borrowers that lowers the amount owed on the loan - thus reducing the monthly payment - but asks for a share in the appreciated value when the house is either sold or refinanced.

The kickback to the lender may deter people who can afford to make their payments from defaulting, while giving an incentive to either the lender or investor to modify the loan.

"We think this answers some of the critics who say that by reducing principal, you are rewarding imprudent borrowing behavior," said Ocwen Executive Vice President Paul Koches. "What we see is unprecedented delinquencies, and we're doing our best to resolve them."

Offered in 33 states, including Florida, the plan is available only on loans where it will earn more for either the lender or investor than if the home went into foreclosure.

Called a shared appreciation modification, it's fairly simple on its face.

A home's principal amount is reduced to 95 percent of the current market value. That portion is forgiven in equal amounts over a three-year period as long as the owner stays current on the loan.

When the house is later either sold or refinanced, the homeowner must give the lender 25 percent of the appreciated value of the home.

For example, say the principal balance on a loan is $125,000, but the current value of the home is only $100,000. Ocwen's plan would reduce the balance to $95,000, putting $30,000 in a non-interest-bearing account that will be forgiven over a three-year period.

If the house is later sold for $120,000 - marking an appreciation of $20,000 - the homeowner would get to keep $15,000, while $5,000 would go to the lender. If the home doesn't appreciate, then the sale occurs as it normally would.

Ocwen, which has about 245 employees in its West Palm Beach office, estimates about 53,000 home­owners nationwide will be eligible for the principal reduction program.

The company specializes in servicing the nation's riskiest home loans and has a portfolio of about 460,000 loans. Ocwen's recent acquisition of Litton Loan Servicing will add 250,000 loans to its portfolio.

A test of the new loan modification program that was launched last year found that of borrowers offered the plan, 79 percent accepted it. The default rate has been about 2.6 percent.

"You have folks breaking their necks to make payments on a home where there is no hope in their lifetime of it regaining equity," Koches said. "A homeowner in a negative equity situation is one-and-a-half to two times more likely to go into delinquency."

In Palm Beach County, nearly 43 percent of homes with mortgages were underwater during the first quarter of 2011, according to real estate analysis firm CoreLogic.

Most home loan modifications result in an interest rate reduction, which can do little in the long run for homeowners who owe more on their loan than their home is worth, said Kathleen Day, spokeswoman for the Center for Responsible Lending.

"We've felt for a long time that unless you do principal write-downs, you really aren't getting at the problem," Day said. "It's in everyone's best interest to keep a credit worthy person in their home."

 

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

10 million more foreclosures in the pipeline

In August, the Obama administration asked the housing industry for ideas on how to more efficiently sell or unload this overhang, and the Senate heard testimony from various housing players Tuesday.

Roughly 10.4 million mortgages, or one in five homes with a mortgage will likely default if Congress refuses to implement new policy changes to prevent and sell more foreclosures, according to analyst Laurie Goodman from Amherst Securities Group.

At the end of the second quarter, more than 2.7 million long-delinquent loans, others in foreclosure and REO properties sat in the shadow inventory, more than double what it was in the first quarter of 2010. With the market averaging roughly 90,000 loan liquidations per month, it would take 32 months, nearly three years, to move through the overhang…and that number is contingent on NO other loans going into default.

"Many analysts looking at the housing problem mistakenly assume it is limited to loans that are currently non-performing (or 60-plus days past due). Such borrowers have a high probability of eventually losing their homes. However, the problem also includes loans with a compromised pay history; these are re-defaulting at a rapid rate," Goodman told a Senate subcommittee Tuesday.

Most of the proposals included recommendations to sell properties ‘in bulk’ to investors with one of the stipulations being that they be turned into rentals. (italics mine)

Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow, said the rental market is currently booming and would be able to handle a mass conversion of foreclosures into rentals. "Investors smell a distinct opportunity in this situation: The chance to buy an asset cheaply and rent it out. In fact, close to one-third of the purchases of existing homes this year have gone to all-cash buyers, the bulk of whom are real estate investors," Humphries said.

This sounds to me like the housing equivalent of ‘cash-for-clunkers’ which resulted in the removal from the market of tens of thousands of good, affordable used cars, as the requirement was to “junk’ the clunker trade-in (the dealers were not allowed to re-sell them)…The same thing will happen with homes; currently, a lot of buyers can’t purchase a great many of the foreclosed homes as they require too much work and/or don’t qualify for an FHA loan. Typically, the buyers in the under $250k market, (where a great percentage of the foreclosed homes sell), are FHA buyers because they DON’T have a lot of cash…so they are not able to ‘buy and rehab’. BUT, that is where cash buyers come in…they buy, rehab to move in condition, and re-sell…quite often to FHA or other low-down-payment buyers and they make a little money doing it…as they should. But if you take away these homes by requiring that they be converted to rentals, how does that help? Well, it helps the big companies, REITS, and investment groups that will get a piece of that sweet deal!

Just read my recent posts regarding the scary legislation working its way through Tallahhssee now…going to make it sooo easy, cheap and fast for the banks to get these homes back…We need everyone to PAY ATTENTION…and thanks for reading!

Steve Jackson